How I’m simulating playoff odds

Over the course of this season I’ve been occasionally running simulations of how the rest of the Major League Soccer season might end up. The feedback I’ve gotten from this work has been generally positive, and a number of people have asked about my methodology. This post is, finally, my attempt to explain the process I’ve been following.

The TL;DR version is this: I’m running a Monte Carlo simulation that randomly assigns a result to each remaining league game.

Continue reading How I’m simulating playoff odds

How I plan to spend the offseason

This year’s American soccer season isn’t scheduled to end for a few weeks yet*, but my preparations for the off season have already started. Usually, the months between MLS Cup and the beginning of training camp are spent doing player scouting and filling in gaps in my data set. This year, however, I have something more ambitious planned.

I’m hoping to re-write my toolset in Python.

Continue reading How I plan to spend the offseason