How I’m simulating playoff odds

Over the course of this season I’ve been occasionally running simulations of how the rest of the Major League Soccer season might end up. The feedback I’ve gotten from this work has been generally positive, and a number of people have asked about my methodology. This post is, finally, my attempt to explain the process I’ve been following.

The TL;DR version is this: I’m running a Monte Carlo simulation that randomly assigns a result to each remaining league game.

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